COVID-19 may be over in India around mid-September, say health ministry officials
Senior officials of the Health Ministry predict that the pandemic in India may go in mid-September this year. According to Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health), Directorate General of Health Services of the Ministry of Health and Family welfare, the pandemic in India will be over in mid-September. In his article published in Epidemiology International Journal, Kumar, along with co-author and Deputy Assistant Director General (Leprosy) of Directorate General of Health Services, Health Ministry, Rupali Roy, have predicted that the pandemic would extinguish in India in mid-September.
Their prediction is based on Bailey's model where Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR) is considered for reaching a conclusion. Speaking to IANS, Dr Kumar said, "There is a well-known model called Bailey's Model. It is based on Relative Removal Rate which means how many cases are entering the pool and how many are going out of the pool. When the number of infected is equal to the number of removed patients, the coefficient will reach 100% threshold, then this pandemic will be over."
In this model, the removal rate is calculated which is the percentage of removed persons in the infected population. Further, a regression analysis has been done to show the linear relationship between the total infection rate and the total recovery rate.
"This model is applicable on any infectious disease. Whatever you do, you will be reaching 100 per cent one day. The relative removal rate means all those who have got infection will be either cured or dead. when we did the study on May 19, it was 42% but now it is around 50 per cent and in the middle of September, it will be 100 percent," said Kumar.
According to this mathematical calculation, taking the rate to higher and higher level is reflection of moving forward in the right direction and success of control measures being taken. The linear regression analysis has been used in this study and it is showing that the linear line is reaching 100 in the middle of September, 2020. "So it may be interpreted that at that point of time, the number of the infected will be equal to the number of removed patients, and that's why the coefficient will reach 100% threshold," said the study.